LaLiga
Real Sociedad vs Valencia
Sunday, May 17, 17:00
Consensus
Low · 23.0%Real Sociedad
39.3%
book 43.9%
Draw
25.8%
book 27.1%
Valencia
34.9%
book 28.9%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 29.1% | 39.5% | 31.4% |
| poisson | 35.0% | 15.8% | 49.1% |
| elo | 42.2% | 28.0% | 29.8% |
| market | 43.9% | 27.1% | 28.9% |
- Real Sociedad wPPG 1.74 (home 1.00, W-L-W-L-L)
- Valencia wPPG 1.44 (away 1.67, W-L-D-W-D)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -0.05
- xG Real Sociedad 2.90 vs Valencia 3.36
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Real Sociedad 1517 vs Valencia 1517
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- away 3.20EV +11.7%Edge 6.0%Kelly 5.3%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 2.90 – 3.36 · No goal 0.2% predicted XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 8 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H. Duro | Valencia | F | 0.40 | 68.0% | 17.1% | |
| M. Oyarzabal | Real Sociedad | F | 0.34 | 65.0% | 15.7% | |
| L. Rioja | Valencia | M | 0.17 | 39.2% | 7.5% | |
| Pepelu | Valencia | M | 0.17 | 39.2% | 7.5% | |
| D. López | Valencia | M | 0.17 | 39.2% | 7.5% | |
| T. Kubo | Real Sociedad | M | 0.11 | 29.5% | 5.2% | |
| P. Marín | Real Sociedad | M | 0.11 | 29.5% | 5.2% | |
| L. Sučić | Real Sociedad | M | 0.11 | 29.5% | 5.2% | |
| J. Aramburu | Real Sociedad | D | 0.08 | 23.0% | 3.9% | |
| J. Vázquez | Valencia | D | 0.08 | 21.3% | 3.6% | |
| Y. Herrera | Real Sociedad | M | 0.05 | 14.4% | 2.3% | |
| J. Gorrotxategi | Real Sociedad | M | 0.05 | 14.4% | 2.3% | |
| G. Rodríguez | Valencia | M | 0.05 | 13.3% | 2.1% | |
| J. Guerra | Valencia | M | 0.05 | 13.3% | 2.1% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 93.8% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.