LaLiga
Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal
Sunday, May 17, 17:00
Consensus
Medium · 51.6%Rayo Vallecano
52.7%
book 48.7%
Draw
25.2%
book 26.4%
Villarreal
22.1%
book 24.9%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 38.8% | 37.0% | 24.2% |
| poisson | 76.1% | 13.5% | 10.4% |
| elo | 40.0% | 29.1% | 31.0% |
| market | 48.7% | 26.4% | 24.9% |
- Rayo Vallecano wPPG 1.08 (home 2.00, W-L-L-L-W)
- Villarreal wPPG 1.33 (away 1.14, W-L-W-W-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.30
- xG Rayo Vallecano 2.65 vs Villarreal 0.86
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Rayo Vallecano 1497 vs Villarreal 1513
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 2.65 – 0.86 · No goal 3.0% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. de Frutos | Rayo Vallecano | M | 0.32 | 50.3% | 18.2% | |
| Alemão | Rayo Vallecano | F | 0.19 | 33.6% | 10.7% | |
| S. Camello | Rayo Vallecano | M | 0.16 | 28.6% | 8.8% | |
| P. I. Ciss | Rayo Vallecano | D | 0.13 | 24.1% | 7.2% | |
| Ó. Valentín | Rayo Vallecano | M | 0.10 | 19.5% | 5.6% | |
| F. Lejeune | Rayo Vallecano | D | 0.07 | 14.9% | 4.2% | |
| A. Moleiro | Villarreal | M | 0.21 | 12.8% | 3.6% | |
| T. Buchanan | Villarreal | M | 0.16 | 9.6% | 2.6% | |
| P. Gueye | Villarreal | M | 0.16 | 9.6% | 2.6% | |
| U. López | Rayo Vallecano | M | 0.04 | 9.2% | 2.5% | |
| Ó. Trejo | Rayo Vallecano | M | 0.04 | 9.2% | 2.5% | |
| A. Pérez | Villarreal | F | 0.13 | 8.3% | 2.2% | |
| T. Oluwaseyi | Villarreal | F | 0.13 | 8.3% | 2.2% | |
| G. Mikautadze | Villarreal | F | 0.52 | 6.3% | 1.7% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 91.2% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.