LaLiga
FC Barcelona vs Real Betis
Sunday, May 17, 19:15
Consensus
High · 76.6%FC Barcelona
79.4%
book 72.5%
Draw
12.4%
book 14.9%
Real Betis
8.2%
book 12.6%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 68.6% | 25.1% | 6.3% |
| poisson | 97.0% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| elo | 52.9% | 22.9% | 24.2% |
| market | 72.5% | 14.9% | 12.6% |
- FC Barcelona wPPG 1.73 (home 3.00, L-W-W-W-L)
- Real Betis wPPG 1.33 (away 1.00, W-L-D-W-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 1.49
- xG FC Barcelona 4.57 vs Real Betis 0.33
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo FC Barcelona 1579 vs Real Betis 1503
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 1.33EV +5.6%Edge 6.8%Kelly 16.8%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 4.57 – 0.33 · No goal 0.7% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raphinha | FC Barcelona | F | 0.36 | 65.4% | 20.2% | |
| R. Lewandowski | FC Barcelona | F | 0.36 | 65.4% | 20.2% | |
| F. López | FC Barcelona | F | 0.24 | 51.8% | 13.9% | |
| M. Bernal | FC Barcelona | M | 0.16 | 37.1% | 8.8% | |
| M. Rashford | FC Barcelona | F | 0.41 | 21.0% | 4.5% | |
| J. Cancelo | FC Barcelona | D | 0.07 | 19.9% | 4.2% | |
| Gavi | FC Barcelona | M | 0.04 | 12.4% | 2.5% | |
| Pedri | FC Barcelona | M | 0.04 | 12.4% | 2.5% | |
| D. Olmo | FC Barcelona | M | 0.16 | 8.5% | 1.7% | |
| R. Bardghji | FC Barcelona | F | 0.13 | 7.4% | 1.5% | |
| A. Ezzalzouli | Real Betis | M | 0.21 | 6.5% | 1.3% | |
| J. Koundé | FC Barcelona | D | 0.02 | 6.1% | 1.2% | |
| E. García | FC Barcelona | D | 0.02 | 6.1% | 1.2% | |
| G. Martín | FC Barcelona | D | 0.02 | 6.1% | 1.2% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 93.3% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.