LaLiga
Athletic Club vs Celta Vigo
Sunday, May 17, 17:00
Consensus
Low · 25.5%Athletic Club
40.7%
book 43.6%
Draw
29.2%
book 29.5%
Celta Vigo
30.1%
book 26.9%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 24.2% | 37.1% | 38.7% |
| poisson | 46.5% | 22.8% | 30.7% |
| elo | 37.8% | 30.1% | 32.1% |
| market | 43.6% | 29.5% | 26.9% |
- Athletic Club wPPG 0.63 (home 1.43, L-L-D-L-L)
- Celta Vigo wPPG 1.37 (away 1.63, D-W-W-W-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -0.29
- xG Athletic Club 1.54 vs Celta Vigo 1.19
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Athletic Club 1478 vs Celta Vigo 1509
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 1.54 – 1.19 · No goal 6.5% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Guruzeta | Athletic Club | F | 0.47 | 44.7% | 19.1% | |
| B. Iglesias | Celta Vigo | F | 0.47 | 27.1% | 10.2% | |
| F. Jutglà | Celta Vigo | F | 0.41 | 24.3% | 9.0% | |
| W. Swedberg | Celta Vigo | F | 0.19 | 12.0% | 4.1% | |
| I. R. d. Galarreta | Athletic Club | M | 0.10 | 11.9% | 4.1% | |
| M. Jauregizar | Athletic Club | M | 0.10 | 11.9% | 4.1% | |
| I. Williams | Athletic Club | M | 0.10 | 11.9% | 4.1% | |
| U. Gómez | Athletic Club | M | 0.10 | 11.9% | 4.1% | |
| Á. Berenguer | Athletic Club | M | 0.10 | 11.9% | 4.1% | |
| J. Rueda | Celta Vigo | M | 0.10 | 6.5% | 2.2% | |
| F. López | Celta Vigo | M | 0.10 | 6.5% | 2.2% | |
| I. Moriba | Celta Vigo | M | 0.10 | 6.5% | 2.2% | |
| S. Carreira | Celta Vigo | M | 0.10 | 6.5% | 2.2% | |
| M. Alonso | Celta Vigo | D | 0.07 | 4.9% | 1.6% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 87.9% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.