Bundesliga
1. FC Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg
Saturday, May 16, 13:30
Consensus
Medium · 52.7%1. FC Union Berlin
48.1%
book 36.7%
Draw
23.4%
book 23.4%
FC Augsburg
28.5%
book 39.9%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 49.8% | 33.3% | 16.9% |
| poisson | 74.7% | 14.7% | 10.6% |
| elo | 45.3% | 26.5% | 28.2% |
| market | 36.7% | 23.4% | 39.9% |
- 1. FC Union Berlin wPPG 0.86 (home 1.00, L-D-D-W-L)
- FC Augsburg wPPG 0.80 (away 0.57, D-L-L-L-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.67
- xG 1. FC Union Berlin 2.40 vs FC Augsburg 0.75
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo 1. FC Union Berlin 1481 vs FC Augsburg 1459
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 2.60EV +25.0%Edge 11.4%Kelly 15.6%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 2.40 – 0.75 · No goal 4.3% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Ilić | 1. FC Union Berlin | F | 0.19 | 39.6% | 14.4% | |
| D. Doekhi | 1. FC Union Berlin | D | 0.13 | 28.8% | 9.7% | |
| A. Schäfer | 1. FC Union Berlin | M | 0.10 | 23.4% | 7.6% | |
| O. Burke | 1. FC Union Berlin | M | 0.10 | 23.4% | 7.6% | |
| I. Ansah | 1. FC Union Berlin | M | 0.10 | 23.4% | 7.6% | |
| A. Kade | FC Augsburg | F | 0.24 | 15.7% | 4.9% | |
| M. Gregoritsch | FC Augsburg | F | 0.24 | 15.7% | 4.9% | |
| A. Kemlein | 1. FC Union Berlin | M | 0.04 | 11.2% | 3.4% | |
| L. Burcu | 1. FC Union Berlin | M | 0.04 | 11.2% | 3.4% | |
| F. Rieder | FC Augsburg | M | 0.16 | 10.3% | 3.1% | |
| M. Kömür | FC Augsburg | F | 0.13 | 8.9% | 2.7% | |
| W. Jeong | 1. FC Union Berlin | M | 0.16 | 7.7% | 2.3% | |
| D. Bogdanov | 1. FC Union Berlin | F | 0.13 | 6.6% | 2.0% | |
| L. Querfeld | 1. FC Union Berlin | D | 0.13 | 6.3% | 1.9% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 89.9% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.