Bundesliga
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV
Saturday, May 16, 13:30
Consensus
Medium · 68.0%Bayer 04 Leverkusen
74.0%
book 75.2%
Draw
15.3%
book 13.8%
Hamburger SV
10.7%
book 11.0%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 60.3% | 29.1% | 10.6% |
| poisson | 86.9% | 8.1% | 5.0% |
| elo | 48.4% | 25.1% | 26.6% |
| market | 75.2% | 13.8% | 11.0% |
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen wPPG 1.29 (home 2.00, W-W-L-L-W)
- Hamburger SV wPPG 1.00 (away 0.71, L-D-L-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 1.09
- xG Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3.41 vs Hamburger SV 0.73
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1532 vs Hamburger SV 1487
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 3.41 – 0.73 · No goal 1.6% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Schick | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | F | 0.41 | 51.9% | 16.4% | |
| M. Tillman | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | F | 0.30 | 41.4% | 11.9% | |
| A. Grimaldo | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | M | 0.27 | 37.8% | 10.6% | |
| I. Maza | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | F | 0.19 | 28.6% | 7.5% | |
| A. García | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | M | 0.16 | 24.2% | 6.2% | |
| J. Quansah | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | D | 0.13 | 20.3% | 5.1% | |
| E. Tapsoba | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | D | 0.13 | 20.3% | 5.1% | |
| F. Vieira | Hamburger SV | F | 0.36 | 17.1% | 4.2% | |
| M. Culbreath | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | M | 0.10 | 16.3% | 4.0% | |
| R. Andrich | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | D | 0.07 | 12.4% | 3.0% | |
| R. Philippe | Hamburger SV | F | 0.24 | 12.1% | 2.9% | |
| L. Vušković | Hamburger SV | D | 0.18 | 9.1% | 2.1% | |
| A. Sambi Lokonga | Hamburger SV | M | 0.16 | 7.9% | 1.8% | |
| E. Palacios | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | M | 0.04 | 7.6% | 1.8% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 92.5% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.