Bundesliga
FC Bayern München vs 1. FC Köln
Saturday, May 16, 13:30
Consensus
High · 80.7%FC Bayern München
87.4%
book 85.2%
Draw
8.6%
book 9.0%
1. FC Köln
4.1%
book 5.7%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 72.3% | 24.0% | 3.7% |
| poisson | 97.2% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| elo | 62.0% | 18.6% | 19.4% |
| market | 85.2% | 9.0% | 5.7% |
- FC Bayern München wPPG 2.39 (home 2.25, W-W-W-W-W)
- 1. FC Köln wPPG 1.16 (away 0.80, W-D-L-L-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 1.86
- xG FC Bayern München 4.87 vs 1. FC Köln 0.40
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo FC Bayern München 1620 vs 1. FC Köln 1479
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 1.14EV +-0.4%Edge 2.1%Kelly 0.0%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 4.87 – 0.40 · No goal 0.5% predicted XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 8 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H. Kane | FC Bayern München | F | 0.90 | 84.8% | 33.4% | |
| L. Díaz | FC Bayern München | M | 0.49 | 63.9% | 18.1% | |
| M. Olise | FC Bayern München | M | 0.30 | 46.6% | 11.1% | |
| H. Itō | FC Bayern München | D | 0.14 | 26.0% | 5.3% | |
| T. Bischof | FC Bayern München | M | 0.11 | 21.0% | 4.2% | |
| A. Pavlović | FC Bayern München | M | 0.11 | 21.0% | 4.2% | |
| J. Musiala | FC Bayern München | M | 0.11 | 21.0% | 4.2% | |
| J. Stanišić | FC Bayern München | D | 0.08 | 16.1% | 3.1% | |
| S. El Mala | 1. FC Köln | M | 0.36 | 12.1% | 2.3% | |
| J. Kimmich | FC Bayern München | M | 0.05 | 9.9% | 1.9% | |
| M. Bülter | 1. FC Köln | F | 0.28 | 9.3% | 1.7% | |
| J. Kamiński | 1. FC Köln | M | 0.17 | 6.1% | 1.1% | |
| D. Upamecano | FC Bayern München | D | 0.02 | 4.9% | 0.9% | |
| L. Maina | 1. FC Köln | M | 0.11 | 3.9% | 0.7% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 93.5% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.