Bundesliga
SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig
Saturday, May 16, 13:30
Consensus
Low · 42.5%SC Freiburg
43.9%
book 39.8%
Draw
25.1%
book 24.0%
RB Leipzig
31.0%
book 36.2%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 43.7% | 35.4% | 20.9% |
| poisson | 57.0% | 19.4% | 23.6% |
| elo | 38.7% | 29.7% | 31.7% |
| market | 39.8% | 24.0% | 36.2% |
- SC Freiburg wPPG 1.08 (home 2.00, W-L-D-W-L)
- RB Leipzig wPPG 1.31 (away 1.33, W-L-W-D-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.46
- xG SC Freiburg 2.03 vs RB Leipzig 1.22
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo SC Freiburg 1491 vs RB Leipzig 1516
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 2.40EV +5.4%Edge 4.1%Kelly 3.9%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 2.03 – 1.22 · No goal 3.9% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Matanović | SC Freiburg | F | 0.47 | 51.7% | 20.2% | |
| Y. Diomande | RB Leipzig | F | 0.52 | 30.5% | 10.1% | |
| J. Manzambi | SC Freiburg | M | 0.16 | 21.5% | 6.7% | |
| C. Baumgartner | RB Leipzig | M | 0.32 | 20.1% | 6.2% | |
| M. Ginter | SC Freiburg | D | 0.13 | 18.0% | 5.5% | |
| C. Harder | RB Leipzig | F | 0.24 | 15.6% | 4.7% | |
| M. Eggestein | SC Freiburg | M | 0.10 | 14.4% | 4.3% | |
| J. Beste | SC Freiburg | M | 0.10 | 14.4% | 4.3% | |
| D. Scherhant | SC Freiburg | M | 0.10 | 14.4% | 4.3% | |
| B. Gruda | RB Leipzig | F | 0.19 | 12.3% | 3.7% | |
| L. Höler | SC Freiburg | F | 0.24 | 7.1% | 2.0% | |
| A. Ouédraogo | RB Leipzig | M | 0.10 | 6.7% | 1.9% | |
| N. Höfler | SC Freiburg | M | 0.04 | 6.7% | 1.9% | |
| W. Orbán | RB Leipzig | D | 0.07 | 5.0% | 1.4% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 90.4% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.