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NEC Nijmegen vs Go Ahead Eagles
Sunday, May 17, 12:30
Consensus
Medium · 67.4%NEC Nijmegen
69.9%
book 70.0%
Draw
18.2%
book 18.3%
Go Ahead Eagles
11.8%
book 11.7%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 67.7% | 25.6% | 6.7% |
| poisson | 79.2% | 11.0% | 9.8% |
| elo | 48.4% | 25.1% | 26.6% |
| market | 70.0% | 18.3% | 11.7% |
- NEC Nijmegen wPPG 1.70 (home 1.86, L-W-W-W-W)
- Go Ahead Eagles wPPG 0.81 (away 0.86, W-L-D-D-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 1.44
- xG NEC Nijmegen 3.41 vs Go Ahead Eagles 1.20
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo NEC Nijmegen 1532 vs Go Ahead Eagles 1487
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 3.41 – 1.20 · No goal 1.0% predicted XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Linssen | NEC Nijmegen | F | 0.36 | 52.3% | 14.9% | |
| T. Chery | NEC Nijmegen | F | 0.36 | 52.3% | 14.9% | |
| S. Ouaissa | NEC Nijmegen | M | 0.21 | 35.5% | 8.9% | |
| D. Nejašmić | NEC Nijmegen | M | 0.21 | 35.5% | 8.9% | |
| K. Sano | NEC Nijmegen | M | 0.21 | 35.5% | 8.9% | |
| N. Lebreton | NEC Nijmegen | M | 0.16 | 27.6% | 6.5% | |
| M. Suray | Go Ahead Eagles | M | 0.38 | 27.3% | 6.5% | |
| M. Meulensteen | Go Ahead Eagles | M | 0.21 | 16.3% | 3.6% | |
| V. Edvardsen | Go Ahead Eagles | F | 0.19 | 14.8% | 3.2% | |
| S. I. Sigurðarson | Go Ahead Eagles | F | 0.19 | 14.8% | 3.2% | |
| E. Dasa | NEC Nijmegen | D | 0.07 | 14.3% | 3.1% | |
| J. Breum | Go Ahead Eagles | M | 0.16 | 12.3% | 2.7% | |
| S. Tengstedt | Go Ahead Eagles | M | 0.16 | 12.3% | 2.7% | |
| J. Dirksen | Go Ahead Eagles | D | 0.07 | 6.1% | 1.3% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 93.1% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.