VriendenLoterij Eredivisie
Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior
Sunday, May 17, 12:30
Consensus
Medium · 52.7%Sparta Rotterdam
51.3%
book 47.2%
Draw
26.2%
book 25.7%
Excelsior
22.5%
book 27.2%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 48.3% | 33.8% | 17.9% |
| poisson | 65.9% | 22.0% | 12.1% |
| elo | 45.3% | 26.5% | 28.2% |
| market | 47.2% | 25.7% | 27.2% |
- Sparta Rotterdam wPPG 1.09 (home 1.75, W-L-L-D-L)
- Excelsior wPPG 0.87 (away 0.86, L-L-W-L-D)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.62
- xG Sparta Rotterdam 1.61 vs Excelsior 0.50
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Sparta Rotterdam 1500 vs Excelsior 1478
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 2.05EV +5.1%Edge 4.1%Kelly 4.9%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 1.61 – 0.50 · No goal 12.1% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Lauritsen | Sparta Rotterdam | F | 0.41 | 39.2% | 19.5% | |
| S. Mito | Sparta Rotterdam | M | 0.32 | 32.3% | 15.3% | |
| J. Kitolano | Sparta Rotterdam | M | 0.21 | 22.6% | 10.0% | |
| N. Naujoks | Excelsior | M | 0.38 | 12.2% | 5.1% | |
| P. Clement | Sparta Rotterdam | M | 0.10 | 11.4% | 4.7% | |
| G. d. Regt | Excelsior | F | 0.24 | 8.1% | 3.3% | |
| I. Yegoian | Excelsior | M | 0.21 | 7.0% | 2.8% | |
| A. Santos | Sparta Rotterdam | M | 0.04 | 5.2% | 2.1% | |
| V. van Crooij | Sparta Rotterdam | M | 0.04 | 5.2% | 2.1% | |
| D. S. Fernandes | Excelsior | F | 0.13 | 4.5% | 1.8% | |
| M. van Duinen | Excelsior | F | 0.13 | 4.5% | 1.8% | |
| M. Zonneveld | Sparta Rotterdam | F | 0.19 | 4.3% | 1.7% | |
| C. Terho | Sparta Rotterdam | F | 0.19 | 4.3% | 1.7% | |
| A. Zagre | Excelsior | D | 0.13 | 4.3% | 1.7% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 82.7% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.