VriendenLoterij Eredivisie
FC Volendam vs SC Telstar
Sunday, May 17, 12:30
Consensus
Low · 40.9%FC Volendam
41.9%
book 35.9%
Draw
27.8%
book 28.3%
SC Telstar
30.3%
book 35.9%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 34.4% | 38.5% | 27.1% |
| poisson | 63.9% | 18.8% | 17.3% |
| elo | 39.1% | 29.5% | 31.4% |
| market | 35.9% | 28.3% | 35.9% |
- FC Volendam wPPG 0.78 (home 1.75, W-D-L-L-L)
- SC Telstar wPPG 0.71 (away 1.00, D-D-D-L-D)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.15
- xG FC Volendam 2.02 vs SC Telstar 0.92
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo FC Volendam 1468 vs SC Telstar 1491
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 2.63EV +10.3%Edge 6.1%Kelly 6.3%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 2.02 – 0.92 · No goal 5.3% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Ould-Chikh | FC Volendam | F | 0.13 | 24.6% | 8.5% | |
| A. Descotte | FC Volendam | F | 0.13 | 24.6% | 8.5% | |
| B. Pauwels | FC Volendam | F | 0.13 | 24.6% | 8.5% | |
| P. Brouwer | SC Telstar | F | 0.24 | 15.0% | 4.9% | |
| M. Amevor | FC Volendam | D | 0.07 | 14.5% | 4.8% | |
| R. Mühren | FC Volendam | F | 0.36 | 13.5% | 4.4% | |
| B. Kuwas | FC Volendam | F | 0.36 | 13.5% | 4.4% | |
| J. Hardeveld | SC Telstar | M | 0.21 | 13.1% | 4.3% | |
| S. v. Duijn | SC Telstar | F | 0.19 | 11.8% | 3.8% | |
| K. Tejan | SC Telstar | F | 0.19 | 11.8% | 3.8% | |
| N. Rossen | SC Telstar | M | 0.16 | 9.8% | 3.1% | |
| A. Oehlers | FC Volendam | F | 0.24 | 9.5% | 3.0% | |
| N. Bukala | FC Volendam | M | 0.04 | 9.0% | 2.8% | |
| J. Bacuna | FC Volendam | M | 0.04 | 9.0% | 2.8% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 89.0% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.