VriendenLoterij Eredivisie
PSV Eindhoven vs FC Twente
Sunday, May 17, 12:30
Consensus
Medium · 56.9%PSV Eindhoven
52.2%
book 43.0%
Draw
22.4%
book 22.9%
FC Twente
25.3%
book 34.1%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 63.7% | 27.6% | 8.7% |
| poisson | 68.7% | 15.4% | 15.9% |
| elo | 46.6% | 25.9% | 27.5% |
| market | 43.0% | 22.9% | 34.1% |
- PSV Eindhoven wPPG 1.98 (home 2.38, W-W-W-W-W)
- FC Twente wPPG 1.06 (away 1.29, L-D-D-D-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 1.24
- xG PSV Eindhoven 2.61 vs FC Twente 1.18
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo PSV Eindhoven 1563 vs FC Twente 1532
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 2.20EV +14.9%Edge 9.2%Kelly 12.4%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 2.61 – 1.18 · No goal 2.3% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Pepi | PSV Eindhoven | F | 0.52 | 49.5% | 16.6% | |
| D. Man | PSV Eindhoven | M | 0.27 | 29.4% | 8.5% | |
| G. Til | PSV Eindhoven | M | 0.27 | 29.4% | 8.5% | |
| I. Perišić | PSV Eindhoven | M | 0.27 | 29.4% | 8.5% | |
| D. Rots | FC Twente | M | 0.38 | 24.7% | 6.9% | |
| S. Lammers | FC Twente | F | 0.30 | 20.1% | 5.5% | |
| P. Wanner | PSV Eindhoven | M | 0.16 | 18.4% | 4.9% | |
| K. Hlynsson | FC Twente | M | 0.27 | 18.1% | 4.9% | |
| M. Rots | FC Twente | D | 0.18 | 12.7% | 3.3% | |
| K. Sildillia | PSV Eindhoven | D | 0.07 | 9.3% | 2.4% | |
| R. Flamingo | PSV Eindhoven | D | 0.07 | 9.3% | 2.4% | |
| Y. Gasiorowski | PSV Eindhoven | D | 0.07 | 9.3% | 2.4% | |
| R. Zerrouki | FC Twente | M | 0.10 | 7.2% | 1.8% | |
| I. Saibari | PSV Eindhoven | M | 0.27 | 6.5% | 1.6% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 91.9% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.