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PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord
Sunday, May 17, 12:30
Consensus
Low · 39.6%PEC Zwolle
34.8%
book 16.5%
Draw
22.6%
book 19.3%
Feyenoord
42.7%
book 64.3%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 37.1% | 37.6% | 25.3% |
| poisson | 77.1% | 13.3% | 9.6% |
| elo | 36.9% | 30.5% | 32.5% |
| market | 16.5% | 19.3% | 64.3% |
- PEC Zwolle wPPG 1.09 (home 2.00, L-D-D-L-W)
- Feyenoord wPPG 1.24 (away 1.00, W-L-L-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.24
- xG PEC Zwolle 2.61 vs Feyenoord 0.79
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo PEC Zwolle 1468 vs Feyenoord 1506
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 5.50EV +91.1%Edge 18.3%Kelly 20.3%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 2.61 – 0.79 · No goal 3.4% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Kostons | PEC Zwolle | F | 0.47 | 65.5% | 28.5% | |
| J. Monteiro | PEC Zwolle | M | 0.16 | 29.9% | 9.5% | |
| T. Oosting | PEC Zwolle | M | 0.16 | 29.9% | 9.5% | |
| C. Tengstedt | Feyenoord | F | 0.30 | 18.8% | 5.6% | |
| A. H. Moussa | Feyenoord | M | 0.27 | 16.9% | 4.9% | |
| S. Floranus | PEC Zwolle | D | 0.07 | 15.6% | 4.5% | |
| Z. Buurmeester | PEC Zwolle | M | 0.04 | 9.6% | 2.7% | |
| G. Reiziger | PEC Zwolle | M | 0.04 | 9.6% | 2.7% | |
| O. Velanas | PEC Zwolle | M | 0.04 | 9.6% | 2.7% | |
| O. Targhalline | Feyenoord | M | 0.10 | 6.7% | 1.9% | |
| T. Buitink | PEC Zwolle | F | 0.13 | 5.7% | 1.6% | |
| M. d. Troije | PEC Zwolle | F | 0.13 | 5.7% | 1.6% | |
| J. Bos | Feyenoord | D | 0.07 | 5.0% | 1.4% | |
| O. Aertssen | PEC Zwolle | D | 0.02 | 4.7% | 1.3% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 90.8% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.