VriendenLoterij Eredivisie
SC Heerenveen vs AFC Ajax
Sunday, May 17, 12:30
Consensus
Low · 27.8%SC Heerenveen
35.7%
book 31.2%
Draw
24.8%
book 23.6%
AFC Ajax
39.5%
book 45.2%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 27.4% | 38.7% | 33.9% |
| poisson | 52.1% | 17.4% | 30.4% |
| elo | 37.8% | 30.1% | 32.1% |
| market | 31.2% | 23.6% | 45.2% |
- SC Heerenveen wPPG 1.08 (home 1.29, D-D-L-W-L)
- AFC Ajax wPPG 1.25 (away 1.25, L-L-W-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -0.13
- xG SC Heerenveen 2.62 vs AFC Ajax 2.01
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo SC Heerenveen 1494 vs AFC Ajax 1525
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 3.00EV +7.2%Edge 4.6%Kelly 3.6%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 2.62 – 2.01 · No goal 1.0% predicted XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Godts | AFC Ajax | F | 0.63 | 54.7% | 15.9% | |
| J. Trenskow | SC Heerenveen | M | 0.27 | 47.1% | 12.8% | |
| D. Vente | SC Heerenveen | F | 0.19 | 36.3% | 9.0% | |
| K. Dolberg | AFC Ajax | F | 0.30 | 31.2% | 7.5% | |
| L. Brouwers | SC Heerenveen | M | 0.16 | 31.0% | 7.5% | |
| R. Meerveld | SC Heerenveen | M | 0.16 | 31.0% | 7.5% | |
| V. Zagaritis | SC Heerenveen | D | 0.13 | 26.2% | 6.1% | |
| Y. Baas | AFC Ajax | D | 0.18 | 20.2% | 4.5% | |
| J. Mokio | AFC Ajax | M | 0.16 | 17.7% | 3.9% | |
| M. Willemsen | SC Heerenveen | D | 0.07 | 16.3% | 3.6% | |
| S. Berghuis | AFC Ajax | F | 0.13 | 15.3% | 3.3% | |
| O. Gloukh | AFC Ajax | M | 0.10 | 11.7% | 2.5% | |
| M. Linday | SC Heerenveen | M | 0.04 | 10.1% | 2.1% | |
| L. Oyen | SC Heerenveen | M | 0.04 | 10.1% | 2.1% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 93.1% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.