Premier League
Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton
Sunday, May 24, 15:00
Consensus
Low · 30.0%Tottenham Hotspur
37.7%
book 50.4%
Draw
29.7%
book 26.9%
Everton
32.7%
book 22.8%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 22.1% | 36.0% | 41.8% |
| poisson | 18.4% | 29.2% | 52.4% |
| elo | 36.1% | 30.9% | 33.0% |
| market | 50.4% | 26.9% | 22.8% |
- Tottenham Hotspur wPPG 0.94 (home 0.63, W-L-L-W-D)
- Everton wPPG 1.40 (away 1.88, D-W-W-L-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -0.40
- xG Tottenham Hotspur 0.54 vs Everton 1.17
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Tottenham Hotspur 1462 vs Everton 1506
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- away 4.10EV +34.0%Edge 9.9%Kelly 11.0%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 0.54 – 1.17 · No goal 18.1% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Barry | Everton | F | 0.41 | 32.2% | 17.5% | |
| K. Dewsbury-Hall | Everton | M | 0.21 | 18.1% | 9.0% | |
| Richarlison | Tottenham Hotspur | F | 0.30 | 16.0% | 7.9% | |
| M. Keane | Everton | D | 0.13 | 11.3% | 5.4% | |
| J. Garner | Everton | M | 0.10 | 9.0% | 4.3% | |
| I. Ndiaye | Everton | M | 0.10 | 9.0% | 4.3% | |
| J. Palhinha | Tottenham Hotspur | M | 0.10 | 5.7% | 2.6% | |
| M. Tel | Tottenham Hotspur | M | 0.10 | 5.7% | 2.6% | |
| Beto | Everton | F | 0.24 | 4.3% | 2.0% | |
| M. van de Ven | Tottenham Hotspur | D | 0.07 | 4.2% | 1.9% | |
| T. Iroegbunam | Everton | M | 0.04 | 4.1% | 1.9% | |
| M. Röhl | Everton | M | 0.04 | 4.1% | 1.9% | |
| D. Solanke | Tottenham Hotspur | F | 0.30 | 3.3% | 1.5% | |
| R. Bentancur | Tottenham Hotspur | M | 0.04 | 2.6% | 1.2% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 77.0% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.