Premier League
Manchester City vs Aston Villa
Sunday, May 24, 15:00
Consensus
Medium · 55.1%Manchester City
52.6%
book 33.3%
Draw
26.1%
book 33.3%
Aston Villa
21.3%
book 33.3%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 46.1% | 34.6% | 19.3% |
| poisson | 82.9% | 11.0% | 6.1% |
| elo | 48.2% | 25.1% | 26.7% |
| market | 33.3% | 33.3% | 33.3% |
- Manchester City wPPG 1.74 (home 2.33, D-D-W-W-L)
- Aston Villa wPPG 1.88 (away 2.17, W-L-W-D-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.54
- xG Manchester City 2.75 vs Aston Villa 0.59
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Manchester City 1556 vs Aston Villa 1513
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 1.00EV +-47.4%Edge 19.3%Kelly 0.0%