Premier League
Newcastle United vs West Ham United
Sunday, May 17, 16:30
Consensus
Medium · 53.6%Newcastle United
51.9%
book 46.7%
Draw
23.1%
book 23.9%
West Ham United
25.0%
book 29.4%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 51.6% | 32.6% | 15.8% |
| poisson | 68.6% | 14.0% | 17.4% |
| elo | 43.0% | 27.6% | 29.4% |
| market | 46.7% | 23.9% | 29.4% |
- Newcastle United wPPG 1.25 (home 1.13, W-W-D-L-L)
- West Ham United wPPG 0.64 (away 1.00, D-D-L-L-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.74
- xG Newcastle United 3.23 vs West Ham United 1.67
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Newcastle United 1481 vs West Ham United 1475
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 2.05EV +6.4%Edge 5.2%Kelly 6.1%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 3.23 – 1.67 · No goal 0.7% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Osula | Newcastle United | F | 0.30 | 50.2% | 13.3% | |
| B. Guimarães | Newcastle United | M | 0.21 | 38.8% | 9.4% | |
| J. Bowen | West Ham United | F | 0.41 | 35.9% | 8.5% | |
| C. Summerville | West Ham United | F | 0.36 | 31.9% | 7.3% | |
| H. Barnes | Newcastle United | M | 0.16 | 30.4% | 6.9% | |
| J. Ramsey | Newcastle United | M | 0.16 | 30.4% | 6.9% | |
| M. Thiaw | Newcastle United | D | 0.13 | 25.7% | 5.6% | |
| C. Wilson | West Ham United | F | 0.19 | 18.5% | 3.9% | |
| S. Botman | Newcastle United | D | 0.07 | 15.9% | 3.3% | |
| L. Hall | Newcastle United | D | 0.07 | 15.9% | 3.3% | |
| T. Souček | West Ham United | M | 0.16 | 15.5% | 3.2% | |
| M. Fernandes | West Ham United | M | 0.16 | 15.5% | 3.2% | |
| A. Gordon | Newcastle United | F | 0.36 | 14.7% | 3.0% | |
| S. Tonali | Newcastle United | M | 0.04 | 9.8% | 2.0% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 93.3% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.