Premier League
Leeds United vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Sunday, May 17, 14:00
Consensus
Low · 46.9%Leeds United
41.1%
book 27.5%
Draw
25.5%
book 25.9%
Brighton & Hove Albion
33.3%
book 46.6%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 56.9% | 30.6% | 12.6% |
| poisson | 63.5% | 18.4% | 18.1% |
| elo | 43.5% | 27.4% | 29.1% |
| market | 27.5% | 25.9% | 46.6% |
- Leeds United wPPG 1.62 (home 1.75, W-D-D-W-D)
- Brighton & Hove Albion wPPG 1.09 (away 0.86, D-W-W-L-D)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.94
- xG Leeds United 2.10 vs Brighton & Hove Albion 1.00
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Leeds United 1506 vs Brighton & Hove Albion 1497
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 3.40EV +39.9%Edge 13.6%Kelly 16.6%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 2.10 – 1.00 · No goal 4.5% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Calvert-Lewin | Leeds United | F | 0.58 | 50.2% | 20.2% | |
| B. Aaronson | Leeds United | F | 0.30 | 30.4% | 10.5% | |
| A. Stach | Leeds United | M | 0.21 | 22.5% | 7.4% | |
| D. Welbeck | Brighton & Hove Albion | F | 0.24 | 21.0% | 6.8% | |
| A. Tanaka | Leeds United | M | 0.16 | 17.1% | 5.4% | |
| J. P. van Hecke | Brighton & Hove Albion | D | 0.13 | 11.6% | 3.6% | |
| E. Ampadu | Leeds United | M | 0.10 | 11.4% | 3.5% | |
| J. Justin | Leeds United | M | 0.10 | 11.4% | 3.5% | |
| P. Groß | Brighton & Hove Albion | M | 0.10 | 9.2% | 2.8% | |
| J. Hinshelwood | Brighton & Hove Albion | M | 0.10 | 9.2% | 2.8% | |
| J. Bijol | Leeds United | D | 0.07 | 8.6% | 2.6% | |
| J. Veltman | Brighton & Hove Albion | D | 0.07 | 6.9% | 2.1% | |
| M. De Cuyper | Brighton & Hove Albion | D | 0.07 | 6.9% | 2.1% | |
| L. Nmecha | Leeds United | F | 0.24 | 5.5% | 1.6% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 89.7% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.