Premier League
Brentford vs Crystal Palace
Sunday, May 17, 14:00
Consensus
Medium · 57.5%Brentford
57.5%
book 55.8%
Draw
23.8%
book 23.4%
Crystal Palace
18.8%
book 20.7%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 53.6% | 31.8% | 14.5% |
| poisson | 68.9% | 18.4% | 12.7% |
| elo | 46.6% | 25.9% | 27.5% |
| market | 55.8% | 23.4% | 20.7% |
- Brentford wPPG 1.08 (home 1.29, L-L-D-W-W)
- Crystal Palace wPPG 0.72 (away 0.88, L-D-L-L-D)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.82
- xG Brentford 1.96 vs Crystal Palace 0.67
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Brentford 1509 vs Crystal Palace 1478
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 1.96 – 0.67 · No goal 7.3% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Thiago | Brentford | F | 0.52 | 49.0% | 22.4% | |
| K. Lewis-Potter | Brentford | D | 0.18 | 20.8% | 7.7% | |
| D. Ouattara | Brentford | M | 0.16 | 18.2% | 6.7% | |
| M. Damsgaard | Brentford | M | 0.16 | 18.2% | 6.7% | |
| I. Sarr | Crystal Palace | F | 0.36 | 16.1% | 5.8% | |
| J. Larsen | Crystal Palace | F | 0.30 | 13.8% | 4.9% | |
| Y. Yarmoliuk | Brentford | M | 0.10 | 12.1% | 4.3% | |
| V. Janelt | Brentford | M | 0.10 | 12.1% | 4.3% | |
| N. Collins | Brentford | D | 0.07 | 9.1% | 3.2% | |
| Y. Pino | Crystal Palace | F | 0.19 | 8.9% | 3.1% | |
| K. Schade | Brentford | M | 0.27 | 6.4% | 2.2% | |
| M. Jensen | Brentford | M | 0.04 | 5.6% | 1.9% | |
| D. Muñoz | Crystal Palace | M | 0.10 | 4.8% | 1.6% | |
| M. Lacroix | Crystal Palace | D | 0.07 | 3.6% | 1.2% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 87.2% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.