Premier League
Bournemouth vs Manchester City
Tuesday, May 19, 18:30
Consensus
Low · 44.9%Bournemouth
22.3%
book 19.6%
Draw
23.5%
book 20.7%
Manchester City
54.2%
book 59.7%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 10.2% | 28.8% | 60.9% |
| poisson | 35.9% | 21.1% | 42.9% |
| elo | 32.7% | 30.7% | 36.5% |
| market | 19.6% | 20.7% | 59.7% |
- Bournemouth wPPG 0.56 (home 1.29, L-L-D-L-L)
- Manchester City wPPG 1.97 (away 1.88, L-W-D-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -1.12
- xG Bournemouth 1.54 vs Manchester City 1.70
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Bournemouth 1475 vs Manchester City 1554
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 1.54 – 1.70 · No goal 3.9% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Haaland | Manchester City | F | 0.47 | 34.0% | 11.6% | |
| Evanilson | Bournemouth | F | 0.36 | 32.2% | 10.9% | |
| A. Semenyo | Manchester City | M | 0.38 | 28.5% | 9.4% | |
| E. J. Kroupi | Bournemouth | M | 0.27 | 25.3% | 8.1% | |
| J. Doku | Manchester City | M | 0.27 | 21.1% | 6.6% | |
| M. Tavernier | Bournemouth | M | 0.21 | 20.6% | 6.4% | |
| N. O’Reilly | Manchester City | D | 0.23 | 18.8% | 5.8% | |
| T. Adams | Bournemouth | M | 0.16 | 15.7% | 4.7% | |
| B. Silva | Manchester City | M | 0.16 | 12.9% | 3.9% | |
| A. Scott | Bournemouth | M | 0.10 | 10.4% | 3.1% | |
| Rodri | Manchester City | M | 0.10 | 8.5% | 2.5% | |
| M. Guéhi | Manchester City | D | 0.07 | 6.4% | 1.8% | |
| A. Adli | Bournemouth | F | 0.24 | 5.0% | 1.4% | |
| O. Marmoush | Manchester City | F | 0.30 | 5.0% | 1.4% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 90.3% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.