Serie A
Fiorentina vs Atalanta
Friday, May 22, 18:45
Consensus
Low · 23.7%Fiorentina
30.9%
book 31.5%
Draw
29.4%
book 26.0%
Atalanta
39.7%
book 42.5%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 23.0% | 36.5% | 40.5% |
| poisson | 31.0% | 33.0% | 36.0% |
| elo | 37.8% | 30.1% | 32.1% |
| market | 31.5% | 26.0% | 42.5% |
- Fiorentina wPPG 1.36 (home 1.63, W-L-W-D-D)
- Atalanta wPPG 2.16 (away 1.71, W-W-W-D-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -0.35
- xG Fiorentina 0.75 vs Atalanta 0.83
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Fiorentina 1516 vs Atalanta 1547
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 0.75 – 0.83 · No goal 20.6% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Guðmundsson | Fiorentina | F | 0.30 | 14.4% | 7.4% | |
| G. Raspadori | Atalanta | F | 0.24 | 13.2% | 6.7% | |
| R. Piccoli | Fiorentina | F | 0.24 | 11.9% | 6.0% | |
| L. Samardžić | Atalanta | F | 0.19 | 10.4% | 5.2% | |
| M. Pašalić | Atalanta | M | 0.16 | 8.6% | 4.3% | |
| R. Mandragora | Fiorentina | M | 0.16 | 7.8% | 3.8% | |
| K. Sulemana | Atalanta | F | 0.13 | 7.4% | 3.7% | |
| G. Scalvini | Atalanta | D | 0.13 | 7.1% | 3.5% | |
| J. Harrison | Fiorentina | F | 0.13 | 6.7% | 3.3% | |
| N. Krstović | Atalanta | F | 0.52 | 5.7% | 2.8% | |
| M. de Roon | Atalanta | M | 0.10 | 5.6% | 2.7% | |
| Y. Musah | Atalanta | M | 0.10 | 5.6% | 2.7% | |
| G. Fabbian | Fiorentina | M | 0.10 | 5.1% | 2.5% | |
| M. Brescianini | Fiorentina | M | 0.10 | 5.1% | 2.5% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 74.6% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.