Serie A
Parma vs Sassuolo
Sunday, May 24, 13:00
Consensus
Low · 36.5%Parma
28.9%
book 32.6%
Draw
29.9%
book 29.4%
Sassuolo
41.2%
book 38.0%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 22.1% | 36.0% | 42.0% |
| poisson | 18.9% | 26.6% | 54.6% |
| elo | 40.4% | 28.8% | 30.8% |
| market | 32.6% | 29.4% | 38.0% |
- Parma wPPG 1.10 (home 1.00, W-L-W-L-W)
- Sassuolo wPPG 1.31 (away 1.38, W-L-W-D-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -0.40
- xG Parma 0.62 vs Sassuolo 1.31
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Parma 1484 vs Sassuolo 1497
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 0.62 – 1.31 · No goal 14.5% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Berardi | Sassuolo | F | 0.36 | 26.1% | 12.6% | |
| M. Pellegrino | Parma | F | 0.41 | 21.6% | 10.1% | |
| A. Pinamonti | Sassuolo | F | 0.24 | 18.8% | 8.7% | |
| A. Laurienté | Sassuolo | F | 0.24 | 18.8% | 8.7% | |
| I. Koné | Sassuolo | M | 0.21 | 16.4% | 7.5% | |
| K. Thorstvedt | Sassuolo | M | 0.16 | 12.4% | 5.5% | |
| D. Mikołajewski | Parma | F | 0.13 | 7.6% | 3.3% | |
| C. Ordoñez | Parma | M | 0.10 | 5.7% | 2.5% | |
| M. Troilo | Parma | D | 0.07 | 4.3% | 1.8% | |
| L. Lipani | Sassuolo | M | 0.04 | 3.7% | 1.6% | |
| M. Nzola | Sassuolo | F | 0.19 | 3.0% | 1.3% | |
| A. Fadera | Sassuolo | F | 0.19 | 3.0% | 1.3% | |
| S. Britschgi | Parma | M | 0.04 | 2.6% | 1.1% | |
| H. Caviglia | Parma | M | 0.04 | 2.6% | 1.1% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 80.4% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.