Serie A
Milan vs Cagliari
Sunday, May 24, 13:00
Consensus
Medium · 62.7%Milan
60.3%
book 33.3%
Draw
22.1%
book 33.3%
Cagliari
17.6%
book 33.3%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 69.2% | 24.8% | 6.0% |
| poisson | 90.2% | 5.8% | 4.0% |
| elo | 47.6% | 25.4% | 27.0% |
| market | 33.3% | 33.3% | 33.3% |
- Milan wPPG 1.79 (home 2.00, D-W-W-L-W)
- Cagliari wPPG 0.53 (away 0.33, D-L-L-D-D)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 1.52
- xG Milan 4.57 vs Cagliari 1.08
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Milan 1517 vs Cagliari 1479
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 1.00EV +-39.7%Edge 27.0%Kelly 0.0%