Serie A
SSC Napoli vs Udinese
Sunday, May 24, 16:00
Consensus
Medium · 60.5%SSC Napoli
62.5%
book 63.5%
Draw
22.4%
book 22.4%
Udinese
15.1%
book 14.1%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 55.4% | 31.1% | 13.4% |
| poisson | 71.3% | 15.8% | 12.9% |
| elo | 47.5% | 25.5% | 27.0% |
| market | 63.5% | 22.4% | 14.1% |
- SSC Napoli wPPG 1.37 (home 2.14, L-W-W-D-D)
- Udinese wPPG 0.93 (away 1.29, L-L-W-L-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.89
- xG SSC Napoli 2.34 vs Udinese 0.86
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo SSC Napoli 1516 vs Udinese 1478
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 2.34 – 0.86 · No goal 4.1% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Højlund | SSC Napoli | F | 0.47 | 46.8% | 17.8% | |
| S. McTominay | SSC Napoli | M | 0.27 | 30.3% | 10.2% | |
| A. Santos | SSC Napoli | F | 0.24 | 28.2% | 9.3% | |
| E. Elmas | SSC Napoli | F | 0.19 | 22.6% | 7.2% | |
| K. Davis | Udinese | F | 0.36 | 21.1% | 6.7% | |
| M. Politano | SSC Napoli | M | 0.10 | 12.7% | 3.8% | |
| S. Lobotka | SSC Napoli | M | 0.10 | 12.7% | 3.8% | |
| M. Gutiérrez | SSC Napoli | M | 0.10 | 12.7% | 3.8% | |
| J. Piotrowski | Udinese | F | 0.19 | 11.8% | 3.5% | |
| A. Atta | Udinese | F | 0.19 | 11.8% | 3.5% | |
| O. Solet | Udinese | D | 0.18 | 11.3% | 3.4% | |
| G. Di Lorenzo | SSC Napoli | D | 0.07 | 9.6% | 2.8% | |
| A. Rrahmani | SSC Napoli | D | 0.07 | 9.6% | 2.8% | |
| C. Kabasele | Udinese | D | 0.07 | 4.8% | 1.4% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 90.2% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.