Serie A
Atalanta vs Bologna
Sunday, May 17, 16:00
Consensus
Medium · 61.1%Atalanta
58.9%
book 55.6%
Draw
23.7%
book 23.9%
Bologna
17.4%
book 20.5%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 69.0% | 24.9% | 6.1% |
| poisson | 63.0% | 21.0% | 16.0% |
| elo | 50.2% | 24.2% | 25.6% |
| market | 55.6% | 23.9% | 20.5% |
- Atalanta wPPG 2.16 (home 2.38, W-W-W-D-W)
- Bologna wPPG 0.82 (away 2.29, L-D-W-L-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 1.51
- xG Atalanta 1.74 vs Bologna 0.71
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Atalanta 1547 vs Bologna 1491
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 1.74 – 0.71 · No goal 8.6% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Krstović | Atalanta | F | 0.52 | 40.1% | 17.9% | |
| G. Raspadori | Atalanta | F | 0.24 | 21.3% | 8.4% | |
| C. De Ketelaere | Atalanta | F | 0.19 | 16.9% | 6.5% | |
| D. Zappacosta | Atalanta | M | 0.16 | 14.1% | 5.3% | |
| S. Castro | Bologna | F | 0.24 | 12.9% | 4.9% | |
| J. Rowe | Bologna | F | 0.24 | 12.9% | 4.9% | |
| G. Scalvini | Atalanta | D | 0.13 | 11.7% | 4.4% | |
| F. Bernardeschi | Bologna | F | 0.19 | 10.2% | 3.7% | |
| M. de Roon | Atalanta | M | 0.10 | 9.3% | 3.4% | |
| Éderson | Atalanta | M | 0.10 | 9.3% | 3.4% | |
| N. Zalewski | Atalanta | M | 0.10 | 9.3% | 3.4% | |
| L. Ferguson | Bologna | M | 0.10 | 5.5% | 2.0% | |
| R. Freuler | Bologna | M | 0.10 | 5.5% | 2.0% | |
| G. Scamacca | Atalanta | F | 0.30 | 5.5% | 2.0% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 85.9% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.