Premier League
Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur
Tuesday, May 19, 19:15
Consensus
Low · 49.8%Chelsea
48.0%
book 43.4%
Draw
26.9%
book 27.6%
Tottenham Hotspur
25.1%
book 29.0%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 54.7% | 31.4% | 13.8% |
| poisson | 56.1% | 21.9% | 21.9% |
| elo | 45.3% | 26.5% | 28.2% |
| market | 43.4% | 27.6% | 29.0% |
- Chelsea wPPG 1.29 (home 1.00, L-W-W-W-W)
- Tottenham Hotspur wPPG 0.94 (away 0.71, W-L-L-W-D)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.86
- xG Chelsea 1.68 vs Tottenham Hotspur 0.93
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Chelsea 1484 vs Tottenham Hotspur 1462
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 2.20EV +5.7%Edge 4.6%Kelly 4.7%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 1.68 – 0.93 · No goal 7.4% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Palmer | Chelsea | M | 0.38 | 43.3% | 19.0% | |
| Richarlison | Tottenham Hotspur | F | 0.30 | 26.5% | 10.3% | |
| L. Delap | Chelsea | F | 0.19 | 24.7% | 9.5% | |
| E. Fernández | Chelsea | M | 0.16 | 20.8% | 7.8% | |
| M. Cucurella | Chelsea | D | 0.07 | 10.6% | 3.7% | |
| J. Palhinha | Tottenham Hotspur | M | 0.10 | 9.8% | 3.4% | |
| R. Kolo Muani | Tottenham Hotspur | M | 0.10 | 9.8% | 3.4% | |
| M. Tel | Tottenham Hotspur | M | 0.10 | 9.8% | 3.4% | |
| M. van de Ven | Tottenham Hotspur | D | 0.07 | 7.4% | 2.6% | |
| A. Santos | Chelsea | M | 0.04 | 6.5% | 2.2% | |
| M. Caicedo | Chelsea | M | 0.04 | 6.5% | 2.2% | |
| P. Neto | Chelsea | M | 0.04 | 6.5% | 2.2% | |
| R. Bentancur | Tottenham Hotspur | M | 0.04 | 4.5% | 1.5% | |
| C. Gallagher | Tottenham Hotspur | M | 0.04 | 4.5% | 1.5% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 87.1% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.