WNBA
Atlanta Dream vs Phoenix Mercury
Sunday, May 24, 19:00
Consensus
High · 78.7%Atlanta Dream
73.4%
book 68.2%
Phoenix Mercury
26.6%
book 31.8%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| form | 87.4% | 12.6% |
| normal | 82.2% | 17.8% |
| elo | 72.1% | 27.9% |
| market | 68.2% | 31.8% |
- Atlanta Dream wPPG 1.37 (home 2.10, W-W-W-L-W)
- Phoenix Mercury wPPG 0.97 (away 1.20, W-W-L-L-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 1.21
- Expected score Atlanta Dream 63.1 vs Phoenix Mercury 54.6
- Margin μ=11.07, σ=12
- P(home) = Φ(μ/σ) = 82.2%
- Elo Atlanta Dream 1620 vs Phoenix Mercury 1515
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker Money line prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 1.40EV +2.8%Edge 5.3%Kelly 7.0%