WNBA
Phoenix Mercury vs Chicago Sky
Saturday, May 16, 02:00
Consensus
High · 78.1%Phoenix Mercury
71.3%
book 62.7%
Chicago Sky
28.7%
book 37.3%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| form | 92.9% | 7.1% |
| normal | 81.0% | 19.0% |
| elo | 75.4% | 24.6% |
| market | 62.7% | 37.3% |
- Phoenix Mercury wPPG 0.97 (home 1.50, W-W-L-L-L)
- Chicago Sky wPPG 0.34 (away 0.82, L-W-L-L-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 1.61
- Expected score Phoenix Mercury 63.2 vs Chicago Sky 55.2
- Margin μ=10.56, σ=12
- P(home) = Φ(μ/σ) = 81.0%
- Elo Phoenix Mercury 1515 vs Chicago Sky 1380
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker Money line prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 1.51EV +7.6%Edge 8.6%Kelly 15.0%