MLS
Real Salt Lake vs Colorado Rapids
Sunday, May 17, 01:30
Consensus
Medium · 50.4%Real Salt Lake
55.8%
book 55.7%
Draw
23.2%
book 23.4%
Colorado Rapids
21.0%
book 20.9%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 33.5% | 38.8% | 27.7% |
| poisson | 76.6% | 11.7% | 11.7% |
| elo | 40.0% | 29.1% | 31.0% |
| market | 55.7% | 23.4% | 20.9% |
- Real Salt Lake wPPG 0.75 (home 2.14, L-L-W-L-L)
- Colorado Rapids wPPG 1.32 (away 0.67, W-W-L-L-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.12
- xG Real Salt Lake 3.48 vs Colorado Rapids 1.40
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Real Salt Lake 1481 vs Colorado Rapids 1497
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 3.48 – 1.40 · No goal 0.8% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Solans | Real Salt Lake | F | 0.24 | 53.9% | 14.8% | |
| A. Hezarkhani | Real Salt Lake | M | 0.16 | 38.9% | 9.4% | |
| Z. Gozo | Real Salt Lake | M | 0.16 | 38.9% | 9.4% | |
| R. Navarro | Colorado Rapids | F | 0.47 | 38.5% | 9.3% | |
| S. Spierings | Real Salt Lake | M | 0.10 | 27.1% | 6.1% | |
| P. Aaronson | Colorado Rapids | M | 0.27 | 24.3% | 5.3% | |
| V. Olatunji | Real Salt Lake | F | 0.41 | 22.1% | 4.8% | |
| D. Yedlin | Real Salt Lake | D | 0.07 | 21.0% | 4.5% | |
| J. Glad | Real Salt Lake | D | 0.07 | 21.0% | 4.5% | |
| N. Caliskan | Real Salt Lake | M | 0.04 | 13.1% | 2.7% | |
| H. Ojediran | Colorado Rapids | M | 0.10 | 9.9% | 2.0% | |
| W. Frederick | Colorado Rapids | M | 0.10 | 9.9% | 2.0% | |
| D. Yapi | Colorado Rapids | F | 0.47 | 8.9% | 1.8% | |
| D. Marczuk | Real Salt Lake | F | 0.13 | 7.8% | 1.6% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 93.3% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.