Saudi Pro League
Al-Kholood vs Al-Fateh
Thursday, May 21, 18:00
Consensus
Low · 42.7%Al-Kholood
31.5%
book 42.5%
Draw
26.6%
book 24.5%
Al-Fateh
41.9%
book 33.0%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 19.8% | 34.8% | 45.4% |
| poisson | 11.2% | 21.9% | 66.9% |
| elo | 40.0% | 29.1% | 31.0% |
| market | 42.5% | 24.5% | 33.0% |
- Al-Kholood wPPG 0.63 (home 0.38, L-L-W-L-L)
- Al-Fateh wPPG 1.57 (away 1.14, L-W-W-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -0.52
- xG Al-Kholood 0.47 vs Al-Fateh 1.62
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Al-Kholood 1481 vs Al-Fateh 1497
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- away 2.80EV +17.3%Edge 8.9%Kelly 9.6%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 0.47 – 1.62 · No goal 12.4% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Delgado | Al-Fateh | F | 0.24 | 30.0% | 14.1% | |
| S. Bendebka | Al-Fateh | M | 0.21 | 26.5% | 12.2% | |
| F. Zubaidi | Al-Fateh | F | 0.19 | 24.1% | 10.9% | |
| Z. Youssef | Al-Fateh | M | 0.10 | 13.6% | 5.8% | |
| J. Fernandes | Al-Fateh | D | 0.07 | 10.3% | 4.3% | |
| Guga | Al-Kholood | F | 0.13 | 7.7% | 3.2% | |
| S. A. Tumbukti | Al-Fateh | M | 0.04 | 6.3% | 2.6% | |
| A. A. Fawaz | Al-Fateh | M | 0.04 | 6.3% | 2.6% | |
| H. Qasim | Al-Fateh | M | 0.04 | 6.3% | 2.6% | |
| A. Al-Dosari | Al-Kholood | M | 0.10 | 5.8% | 2.4% | |
| A. Al-Aliwa | Al-Kholood | M | 0.10 | 5.8% | 2.4% | |
| M. Sawan | Al-Kholood | M | 0.10 | 5.8% | 2.4% | |
| E. Utkus | Al-Kholood | D | 0.07 | 4.4% | 1.8% | |
| A. A. Masoud | Al-Fateh | F | 0.13 | 3.7% | 1.5% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 82.3% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.