Saudi Pro League
Al-Khaleej vs Al-Ahli
Wednesday, May 20, 18:00
Consensus
Low · 41.3%Al-Khaleej
20.6%
book 19.0%
Draw
25.8%
book 20.1%
Al-Ahli
53.6%
book 60.9%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 7.9% | 26.8% | 65.3% |
| poisson | 31.4% | 34.2% | 34.5% |
| elo | 32.1% | 30.1% | 37.8% |
| market | 19.0% | 20.1% | 60.9% |
- Al-Khaleej wPPG 0.87 (home 1.17, W-L-L-L-D)
- Al-Ahli wPPG 2.21 (away 2.38, W-W-W-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -1.32
- xG Al-Khaleej 0.72 vs Al-Ahli 0.78
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Al-Khaleej 1497 vs Al-Ahli 1585
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- draw 4.50EV +16.0%Edge 5.7%Kelly 4.6%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 0.72 – 0.78 · No goal 22.3% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Toney | Al-Ahli | F | 1.13 | 32.9% | 19.4% | |
| G. Masouras | Al-Khaleej | F | 0.63 | 27.0% | 15.3% | |
| J. King | Al-Khaleej | F | 0.41 | 18.5% | 9.9% | |
| V. A. Edoa | Al-Ahli | M | 0.21 | 7.2% | 3.6% | |
| F. Al-Buraikan | Al-Ahli | F | 0.19 | 6.4% | 3.2% | |
| E. Millot | Al-Ahli | M | 0.16 | 5.3% | 2.7% | |
| P. Fernandes | Al-Khaleej | M | 0.10 | 4.8% | 2.4% | |
| S. Aboulshamat | Al-Ahli | F | 0.13 | 4.6% | 2.3% | |
| R. Hamed | Al-Ahli | D | 0.13 | 4.4% | 2.2% | |
| M. Gonçalves | Al-Ahli | M | 0.10 | 3.5% | 1.7% | |
| S. Al-Amri | Al-Khaleej | M | 0.04 | 2.2% | 1.1% | |
| M. Kanabah | Al-Khaleej | M | 0.04 | 2.2% | 1.1% | |
| B. Munshi | Al-Khaleej | M | 0.04 | 2.2% | 1.1% | |
| M. Hamzi | Al-Khaleej | F | 0.13 | 1.3% | 0.6% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 73.1% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.