Trendyol Süper Lig
Kasımpaşa vs Galatasaray
Sunday, May 17, 17:00
Consensus
Low · 48.3%Kasımpaşa
25.9%
book 32.1%
Draw
26.9%
book 26.6%
Galatasaray
47.1%
book 41.3%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 7.1% | 26.0% | 66.9% |
| poisson | 24.4% | 24.1% | 51.5% |
| elo | 31.7% | 29.7% | 38.7% |
| market | 32.1% | 26.6% | 41.3% |
- Kasımpaşa wPPG 0.68 (home 0.88, D-L-D-L-L)
- Galatasaray wPPG 2.01 (away 1.88, D-W-W-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -1.40
- xG Kasımpaşa 0.90 vs Galatasaray 1.46
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Kasımpaşa 1465 vs Galatasaray 1560
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- away 2.25EV +6.0%Edge 5.8%Kelly 4.8%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 0.90 – 1.46 · No goal 9.5% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Icardi | Galatasaray | F | 0.41 | 41.0% | 19.1% | |
| A. Benedyczak | Kasımpaşa | F | 0.19 | 17.5% | 7.0% | |
| W. Singo | Galatasaray | D | 0.13 | 15.1% | 5.9% | |
| R. Nhaga | Galatasaray | M | 0.10 | 12.1% | 4.6% | |
| L. Sané | Galatasaray | M | 0.10 | 12.1% | 4.6% | |
| İ. C. Kahveci | Kasımpaşa | M | 0.10 | 9.7% | 3.7% | |
| K. Demirbay | Kasımpaşa | M | 0.10 | 9.7% | 3.7% | |
| F. Diabaté | Kasımpaşa | M | 0.10 | 9.7% | 3.7% | |
| S. Boey | Galatasaray | D | 0.07 | 9.1% | 3.4% | |
| A. Arous | Kasımpaşa | D | 0.07 | 7.3% | 2.7% | |
| K. Ayhan | Galatasaray | M | 0.04 | 5.5% | 2.1% | |
| İ. Gündoğan | Galatasaray | M | 0.04 | 5.5% | 2.1% | |
| N. Lang | Galatasaray | M | 0.04 | 5.5% | 2.1% | |
| H. Gueye | Kasımpaşa | F | 0.24 | 4.7% | 1.7% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 85.1% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.