LaLiga
Real Madrid vs Athletic Club
Saturday, May 23, 19:00
Consensus
High · 72.2%Real Madrid
70.6%
book 61.8%
Draw
17.3%
book 20.2%
Athletic Club
12.0%
book 18.0%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 72.5% | 24.0% | 3.5% |
| poisson | 91.0% | 6.0% | 3.0% |
| elo | 52.0% | 23.4% | 24.7% |
| market | 61.8% | 20.2% | 18.0% |
- Real Madrid wPPG 2.09 (home 2.38, W-W-W-W-W)
- Athletic Club wPPG 0.63 (away 0.63, L-L-D-L-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 1.89
- xG Real Madrid 3.67 vs Athletic Club 0.58
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Real Madrid 1547 vs Athletic Club 1478
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 1.55EV +9.5%Edge 8.9%Kelly 17.3%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 3.67 – 0.58 · No goal 1.4% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Mbappé | Real Madrid | F | 0.47 | 70.5% | 26.6% | |
| F. Valverde | Real Madrid | M | 0.32 | 56.9% | 18.4% | |
| G. García | Real Madrid | F | 0.19 | 39.0% | 10.8% | |
| G. Guruzeta | Athletic Club | F | 0.47 | 18.7% | 4.5% | |
| R. Asencio | Real Madrid | D | 0.07 | 17.7% | 4.2% | |
| Á. Carreras | Real Madrid | D | 0.07 | 17.7% | 4.2% | |
| F. Mastantuono | Real Madrid | M | 0.04 | 11.0% | 2.5% | |
| J. Bellingham | Real Madrid | M | 0.04 | 11.0% | 2.5% | |
| T. Pitarch | Real Madrid | M | 0.04 | 11.0% | 2.5% | |
| R. Navarro | Athletic Club | M | 0.16 | 6.7% | 1.5% | |
| D. Carvajal | Real Madrid | D | 0.02 | 5.4% | 1.2% | |
| D. Alaba | Real Madrid | D | 0.02 | 5.4% | 1.2% | |
| A. Güler | Real Madrid | M | 0.10 | 4.9% | 1.1% | |
| A. Tchouaméni | Real Madrid | M | 0.10 | 4.9% | 1.1% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 92.7% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.