Bundesliga
1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FSV Mainz 05
Saturday, May 16, 13:30
Consensus
Low · 30.8%1. FC Heidenheim
39.4%
book 48.1%
Draw
25.0%
book 22.8%
1. FSV Mainz 05
35.6%
book 29.1%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 20.9% | 35.4% | 43.7% |
| poisson | 32.5% | 20.4% | 47.1% |
| elo | 34.0% | 32.0% | 34.0% |
| market | 48.1% | 22.8% | 29.1% |
- 1. FC Heidenheim wPPG 0.55 (home 0.75, D-L-D-L-L)
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 wPPG 0.85 (away 1.13, L-L-D-D-D)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -0.46
- xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.52 vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.88
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo 1. FC Heidenheim 1434 vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 1494
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- away 3.25EV +15.7%Edge 6.5%Kelly 7.0%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 1.52 – 1.88 · No goal 3.3% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Amiri | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | M | 0.43 | 45.3% | 16.1% | |
| M. Pieringer | 1. FC Heidenheim | F | 0.24 | 29.5% | 9.3% | |
| B. Zivzivadze | 1. FC Heidenheim | F | 0.19 | 23.7% | 7.2% | |
| P. Tietz | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | F | 0.19 | 23.1% | 7.0% | |
| S. Becker | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | F | 0.19 | 23.1% | 7.0% | |
| J. Schöppner | 1. FC Heidenheim | M | 0.10 | 13.3% | 3.8% | |
| S. Widmer | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | M | 0.10 | 13.0% | 3.7% | |
| P. Nebel | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | M | 0.10 | 13.0% | 3.7% | |
| S. Schimmer | 1. FC Heidenheim | F | 0.41 | 10.7% | 3.0% | |
| P. Mainka | 1. FC Heidenheim | D | 0.07 | 10.1% | 2.8% | |
| J. Föhrenbach | 1. FC Heidenheim | D | 0.07 | 10.1% | 2.8% | |
| K. Potulski | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | D | 0.07 | 9.8% | 2.8% | |
| E. Dinkçi | 1. FC Heidenheim | M | 0.04 | 6.2% | 1.7% | |
| N. Dorsch | 1. FC Heidenheim | M | 0.04 | 6.2% | 1.7% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 90.9% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.