Ligue 1
Nantes vs Toulouse
Sunday, May 17, 19:00
Consensus
Low · 48.6%Nantes
27.1%
book 35.1%
Draw
26.5%
book 26.8%
Toulouse
46.4%
book 38.1%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 13.8% | 31.4% | 54.8% |
| poisson | 13.9% | 18.0% | 68.1% |
| elo | 34.0% | 32.0% | 34.0% |
| market | 35.1% | 26.8% | 38.1% |
- Nantes wPPG 0.61 (home 0.13, D-L-W-L-L)
- Toulouse wPPG 1.18 (away 1.14, D-D-D-L-D)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -0.86
- xG Nantes 0.76 vs Toulouse 2.04
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Nantes 1449 vs Toulouse 1509
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- away 2.50EV +16.0%Edge 8.3%Kelly 10.6%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 0.76 – 2.04 · No goal 6.1% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Hidalgo | Toulouse | F | 0.36 | 38.9% | 15.5% | |
| Y. Gboho | Toulouse | F | 0.30 | 34.0% | 13.1% | |
| Emersonn | Toulouse | F | 0.24 | 28.7% | 10.7% | |
| M. Abline | Nantes | F | 0.36 | 23.1% | 8.3% | |
| D. Sidibé | Toulouse | M | 0.16 | 19.4% | 6.8% | |
| P. Diop | Toulouse | M | 0.10 | 12.9% | 4.4% | |
| C. Cásseres Jr. | Toulouse | M | 0.10 | 12.9% | 4.4% | |
| I. Ganago | Nantes | F | 0.13 | 9.4% | 3.1% | |
| R. Cabella | Nantes | M | 0.10 | 7.1% | 2.3% | |
| J. Vignolo | Toulouse | F | 0.24 | 6.3% | 2.1% | |
| D. Methalie | Toulouse | M | 0.04 | 6.0% | 1.9% | |
| C. Awaziem | Nantes | D | 0.07 | 5.3% | 1.7% | |
| J. Russell Rowe | Toulouse | F | 0.13 | 3.5% | 1.1% | |
| Y. E. Arabi | Nantes | F | 0.24 | 3.4% | 1.1% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 88.3% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.