Ligue 1
Olympique Lyonnais vs RC Lens
Sunday, May 17, 19:00
Consensus
Low · 26.0%Olympique Lyonnais
50.4%
book 64.1%
Draw
25.0%
book 20.3%
RC Lens
24.6%
book 15.6%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 18.2% | 34.0% | 47.8% |
| poisson | 47.0% | 24.8% | 28.2% |
| elo | 36.1% | 30.9% | 33.0% |
| market | 64.1% | 20.3% | 15.6% |
- Olympique Lyonnais wPPG 1.46 (home 2.29, W-L-W-W-W)
- RC Lens wPPG 2.60 (away 2.29, W-W-W-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -0.60
- xG Olympique Lyonnais 1.37 vs RC Lens 0.98
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Olympique Lyonnais 1528 vs RC Lens 1573
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- away 5.75EV +41.2%Edge 9.0%Kelly 8.7%
- draw 4.50EV +12.5%Edge 4.7%Kelly 3.6%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 1.37 – 0.98 · No goal 9.6% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Saïd | RC Lens | F | 0.58 | 28.3% | 12.0% | |
| P. Šulc | Olympique Lyonnais | M | 0.38 | 27.5% | 11.7% | |
| F. Thauvin | RC Lens | F | 0.47 | 23.5% | 9.7% | |
| Endrick | Olympique Lyonnais | F | 0.30 | 22.6% | 9.3% | |
| C. Tolisso | Olympique Lyonnais | M | 0.27 | 20.3% | 8.2% | |
| Abner Vinícius | Olympique Lyonnais | M | 0.21 | 16.5% | 6.5% | |
| A. Moreira | Olympique Lyonnais | F | 0.13 | 10.7% | 4.1% | |
| F. Sotoca | RC Lens | F | 0.13 | 7.4% | 2.8% | |
| R. Kluivert | Olympique Lyonnais | D | 0.07 | 6.1% | 2.3% | |
| S. Abdulhamid | RC Lens | M | 0.10 | 5.6% | 2.1% | |
| A. Haidara | RC Lens | M | 0.10 | 5.6% | 2.1% | |
| O. Mangala | Olympique Lyonnais | M | 0.04 | 3.7% | 1.4% | |
| R. Fofana | RC Lens | F | 0.30 | 3.3% | 1.2% | |
| A. Bulatović | RC Lens | M | 0.04 | 2.5% | 0.9% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 85.0% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.