Ligue 1
Olympique de Marseille vs Stade Rennais
Sunday, May 17, 19:00
Consensus
Medium · 53.3%Olympique de Marseille
53.8%
book 49.2%
Draw
23.1%
book 23.2%
Stade Rennais
23.1%
book 27.6%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 41.6% | 36.1% | 22.3% |
| poisson | 77.3% | 12.6% | 10.0% |
| elo | 40.8% | 28.6% | 30.5% |
| market | 49.2% | 23.2% | 27.6% |
- Olympique de Marseille wPPG 1.46 (home 1.75, D-L-W-L-W)
- Stade Rennais wPPG 1.38 (away 1.43, D-L-D-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.39
- xG Olympique de Marseille 2.83 vs Stade Rennais 0.92
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Olympique de Marseille 1491 vs Stade Rennais 1500
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 1.95EV +4.8%Edge 4.6%Kelly 5.1%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 2.83 – 0.92 · No goal 2.4% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Gouiri | Olympique de Marseille | M | 0.38 | 48.9% | 16.4% | |
| M. Greenwood | Olympique de Marseille | M | 0.32 | 43.6% | 14.0% | |
| P. Aubameyang | Olympique de Marseille | F | 0.30 | 41.3% | 13.1% | |
| I. Paixão | Olympique de Marseille | M | 0.21 | 31.3% | 9.2% | |
| E. Lepaul | Stade Rennais | F | 0.52 | 27.0% | 7.7% | |
| P. Højbjerg | Olympique de Marseille | M | 0.10 | 16.3% | 4.4% | |
| T. Weah | Olympique de Marseille | D | 0.07 | 12.4% | 3.2% | |
| M. Tamari | Stade Rennais | M | 0.21 | 12.0% | 3.1% | |
| T. Nnadi | Olympique de Marseille | M | 0.04 | 7.6% | 1.9% | |
| A. A. Boudlal | Stade Rennais | D | 0.13 | 7.4% | 1.9% | |
| V. Rongier | Stade Rennais | M | 0.10 | 5.9% | 1.5% | |
| M. Camara | Stade Rennais | M | 0.10 | 5.9% | 1.5% | |
| L. Blas | Stade Rennais | M | 0.10 | 5.9% | 1.5% | |
| E. Nwaneri | Olympique de Marseille | M | 0.16 | 5.2% | 1.3% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 91.8% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.