Ligue 1
Lille vs Auxerre
Sunday, May 17, 19:00
Consensus
Medium · 64.9%Lille
67.1%
book 68.8%
Draw
22.3%
book 20.4%
Auxerre
10.7%
book 10.8%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 65.0% | 26.9% | 8.0% |
| poisson | 71.9% | 21.3% | 6.8% |
| elo | 48.4% | 25.1% | 26.6% |
| market | 68.8% | 20.4% | 10.8% |
- Lille wPPG 1.44 (home 1.57, W-W-W-L-L)
- Auxerre wPPG 0.35 (away 0.38, L-L-D-L-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 1.31
- xG Lille 1.61 vs Auxerre 0.29
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Lille 1503 vs Auxerre 1459
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 1.61 – 0.29 · No goal 14.9% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Fernandez | Lille | F | 0.36 | 37.7% | 19.9% | |
| H. Haraldsson | Lille | M | 0.21 | 24.5% | 11.8% | |
| B. André | Lille | M | 0.10 | 12.4% | 5.6% | |
| N. Bentaleb | Lille | M | 0.10 | 12.4% | 5.6% | |
| F. Correia | Lille | M | 0.10 | 12.4% | 5.6% | |
| N. Ngoy | Lille | D | 0.07 | 9.4% | 4.2% | |
| L. Sinayoko | Auxerre | M | 0.27 | 7.9% | 3.5% | |
| O. Giroud | Lille | F | 0.24 | 6.1% | 2.6% | |
| N. Mukau | Lille | M | 0.04 | 5.7% | 2.5% | |
| G. Perrin | Lille | F | 0.19 | 4.7% | 2.0% | |
| S. Mara | Auxerre | F | 0.13 | 4.0% | 1.7% | |
| O. Sahraoui | Lille | F | 0.13 | 3.3% | 1.4% | |
| N. Edjouma | Lille | F | 0.13 | 3.3% | 1.4% | |
| K. Danois | Auxerre | M | 0.10 | 3.1% | 1.3% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 79.9% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.