Ligue 1
RC Strasbourg vs AS Monaco
Sunday, May 17, 19:00
Consensus
Low · 18.1%RC Strasbourg
33.9%
book 31.6%
Draw
26.6%
book 22.8%
AS Monaco
39.6%
book 45.7%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 34.1% | 38.6% | 27.3% |
| poisson | 35.7% | 27.5% | 36.8% |
| elo | 39.5% | 29.3% | 31.2% |
| market | 31.6% | 22.8% | 45.7% |
- RC Strasbourg wPPG 1.34 (home 1.38, D-W-W-L-L)
- AS Monaco wPPG 1.63 (away 1.57, W-L-L-L-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.14
- xG RC Strasbourg 1.02 vs AS Monaco 1.05
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo RC Strasbourg 1513 vs AS Monaco 1532
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 1.02 – 1.05 · No goal 12.6% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Balogun | AS Monaco | F | 0.47 | 25.0% | 11.4% | |
| M. Godo | RC Strasbourg | M | 0.38 | 24.1% | 10.9% | |
| M. Akliouche | AS Monaco | F | 0.30 | 16.9% | 7.3% | |
| A. Fati | AS Monaco | F | 0.30 | 16.9% | 7.3% | |
| J. Enciso | RC Strasbourg | F | 0.24 | 16.3% | 7.1% | |
| S. Adingra | AS Monaco | M | 0.21 | 12.2% | 5.2% | |
| D. Moreira | RC Strasbourg | M | 0.16 | 10.7% | 4.5% | |
| S. Nanasi | RC Strasbourg | M | 0.16 | 10.7% | 4.5% | |
| D. Zakaria | AS Monaco | M | 0.16 | 9.1% | 3.8% | |
| S. E. Mourabet | RC Strasbourg | M | 0.10 | 7.0% | 2.9% | |
| G. Doué | RC Strasbourg | D | 0.07 | 5.3% | 2.1% | |
| A. Omobamidele | RC Strasbourg | D | 0.07 | 5.3% | 2.1% | |
| V. Barco | RC Strasbourg | M | 0.04 | 3.2% | 1.3% | |
| J. Teze | AS Monaco | M | 0.04 | 2.7% | 1.1% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 82.2% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.