Ligue 1
Lorient vs Le Havre
Sunday, May 17, 19:00
Consensus
Medium · 60.7%Lorient
54.7%
book 41.9%
Draw
24.7%
book 26.3%
Le Havre
20.6%
book 31.8%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 61.1% | 28.8% | 10.2% |
| poisson | 81.3% | 14.8% | 3.9% |
| elo | 46.6% | 25.9% | 27.5% |
| market | 41.9% | 26.3% | 31.8% |
- Lorient wPPG 1.28 (home 2.14, L-D-L-D-D)
- Le Havre wPPG 0.86 (away 0.75, D-D-L-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 1.12
- xG Lorient 2.05 vs Le Havre 0.24
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Lorient 1509 vs Le Havre 1478
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 2.30EV +25.9%Edge 12.9%Kelly 19.9%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 2.05 – 0.24 · No goal 10.1% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Pagis | Lorient | F | 0.41 | 40.5% | 19.2% | |
| A. B. Dieng | Lorient | F | 0.36 | 36.2% | 16.6% | |
| J. Makengo | Lorient | F | 0.30 | 31.5% | 14.0% | |
| N. Cadiou | Lorient | M | 0.10 | 11.9% | 4.7% | |
| L. Abergel | Lorient | M | 0.10 | 11.9% | 4.7% | |
| A. Kouassi | Lorient | M | 0.10 | 11.9% | 4.7% | |
| S. Soumano | Lorient | F | 0.24 | 5.8% | 2.2% | |
| P. Katseris | Lorient | M | 0.04 | 5.5% | 2.1% | |
| A. Samatta | Le Havre | F | 0.13 | 3.7% | 1.4% | |
| A. Tosin | Lorient | F | 0.13 | 3.2% | 1.2% | |
| M. Bamba | Lorient | F | 0.13 | 3.2% | 1.2% | |
| R. Ndiaye | Le Havre | M | 0.10 | 2.8% | 1.0% | |
| Y. Kechta | Le Havre | M | 0.10 | 2.8% | 1.0% | |
| I. Soumaré | Le Havre | M | 0.10 | 2.8% | 1.0% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 84.5% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.