Premier League
Arsenal vs Burnley
Monday, May 18, 19:00
Consensus
High · 77.6%Arsenal
86.2%
book 89.1%
Draw
10.5%
book 8.4%
Burnley
3.3%
book 2.5%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 74.0% | 24.0% | 2.0% |
| poisson | 92.0% | 5.7% | 2.3% |
| elo | 57.3% | 20.8% | 21.9% |
| market | 89.1% | 8.4% | 2.5% |
- Arsenal wPPG 1.87 (home 2.25, L-W-W-D-D)
- Burnley wPPG 0.19 (away 0.29, L-L-L-L-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 2.25
- xG Arsenal 3.49 vs Burnley 0.43
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Arsenal 1554 vs Burnley 1446
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 3.49 – 0.43 · No goal 2.0% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Saka | Arsenal | F | 0.30 | 51.0% | 16.8% | |
| K. Havertz | Arsenal | F | 0.24 | 44.1% | 13.7% | |
| E. Eze | Arsenal | M | 0.21 | 39.5% | 11.8% | |
| L. Trossard | Arsenal | F | 0.19 | 36.2% | 10.5% | |
| V. Gyökeres | Arsenal | F | 0.63 | 25.1% | 6.8% | |
| W. Saliba | Arsenal | D | 0.07 | 16.2% | 4.2% | |
| Z. Flemming | Burnley | F | 0.30 | 13.3% | 3.4% | |
| N. Madueke | Arsenal | F | 0.24 | 10.6% | 2.6% | |
| M. Ødegaard | Arsenal | M | 0.04 | 10.0% | 2.5% | |
| D. Rice | Arsenal | M | 0.04 | 10.0% | 2.5% | |
| G. Jesus | Arsenal | F | 0.19 | 8.3% | 2.0% | |
| M. Zubimendi | Arsenal | M | 0.16 | 6.9% | 1.7% | |
| G. Martinelli | Arsenal | F | 0.13 | 5.9% | 1.4% | |
| C. Mosquera | Arsenal | D | 0.02 | 4.9% | 1.2% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 92.1% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.