Serie A
Bologna vs Inter
Saturday, May 23, 16:00
Consensus
Medium · 60.7%Bologna
17.9%
book 28.7%
Draw
24.9%
book 25.5%
Inter
57.1%
book 45.8%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 5.3% | 24.0% | 70.7% |
| poisson | 3.0% | 16.7% | 80.3% |
| elo | 32.3% | 30.3% | 37.4% |
| market | 28.7% | 25.5% | 45.8% |
- Bologna wPPG 0.82 (home 0.75, L-D-W-L-L)
- Inter wPPG 2.23 (away 2.29, W-W-D-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -1.61
- xG Bologna 0.16 vs Inter 1.86
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Bologna 1491 vs Inter 1576
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- away 2.10EV +19.9%Edge 11.3%Kelly 18.1%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 0.16 – 1.86 · No goal 13.4% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Martínez | Inter | F | 0.52 | 39.4% | 20.3% | |
| F. P. Esposito | Inter | F | 0.41 | 32.6% | 16.0% | |
| P. Zieliński | Inter | M | 0.27 | 22.6% | 10.4% | |
| F. Dimarco | Inter | M | 0.27 | 22.6% | 10.4% | |
| N. Barella | Inter | M | 0.10 | 9.2% | 3.9% | |
| Y. Bisseck | Inter | D | 0.07 | 6.9% | 2.9% | |
| A. Diouf | Inter | M | 0.04 | 4.2% | 1.7% | |
| P. Sučić | Inter | M | 0.04 | 4.2% | 1.7% | |
| L. Henrique | Inter | F | 0.19 | 3.4% | 1.4% | |
| A. Bonny | Inter | F | 0.19 | 3.4% | 1.4% | |
| S. Castro | Bologna | F | 0.24 | 3.2% | 1.3% | |
| J. Rowe | Bologna | F | 0.24 | 3.2% | 1.3% | |
| H. Mkhitaryan | Inter | M | 0.16 | 2.8% | 1.2% | |
| F. Bernardeschi | Bologna | F | 0.19 | 2.5% | 1.0% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 81.4% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.