Serie A
Sassuolo vs Lecce
Sunday, May 17, 18:45
Consensus
Low · 45.6%Sassuolo
44.1%
book 37.4%
Draw
30.8%
book 29.6%
Lecce
25.1%
book 33.0%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 42.5% | 35.8% | 21.7% |
| poisson | 59.3% | 31.1% | 9.6% |
| elo | 45.7% | 26.3% | 28.0% |
| market | 37.4% | 29.6% | 33.0% |
- Sassuolo wPPG 1.31 (home 1.14, W-L-W-D-L)
- Lecce wPPG 0.96 (away 0.57, W-D-L-W-L)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.42
- xG Sassuolo 1.14 vs Lecce 0.27
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Sassuolo 1497 vs Lecce 1472
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 2.55EV +12.5%Edge 6.7%Kelly 8.1%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 1.14 – 0.27 · No goal 24.5% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Berardi | Sassuolo | F | 0.36 | 22.1% | 12.6% | |
| A. Laurienté | Sassuolo | F | 0.24 | 15.8% | 8.7% | |
| I. Koné | Sassuolo | M | 0.21 | 13.8% | 7.5% | |
| M. Nzola | Sassuolo | F | 0.19 | 12.4% | 6.7% | |
| K. Thorstvedt | Sassuolo | M | 0.16 | 10.3% | 5.5% | |
| T. Muharemović | Sassuolo | D | 0.13 | 8.6% | 4.5% | |
| N. Matić | Sassuolo | M | 0.10 | 6.8% | 3.5% | |
| L. Banda | Lecce | M | 0.21 | 6.6% | 3.5% | |
| W. Cheddira | Lecce | F | 0.13 | 4.2% | 2.2% | |
| A. Pinamonti | Sassuolo | F | 0.24 | 3.2% | 1.7% | |
| L. Coulibaly | Lecce | M | 0.10 | 3.2% | 1.6% | |
| A. Fadera | Sassuolo | F | 0.19 | 2.5% | 1.3% | |
| L. Moro | Sassuolo | F | 0.13 | 1.8% | 0.9% | |
| N. Štulić | Lecce | F | 0.24 | 1.5% | 0.8% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 71.0% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.