Serie A
Juventus vs Fiorentina
Sunday, May 17, 10:00
Consensus
Medium · 66.8%Juventus
71.9%
book 73.3%
Draw
16.6%
book 15.4%
Fiorentina
11.5%
book 11.3%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 60.4% | 29.1% | 10.5% |
| poisson | 83.4% | 9.6% | 6.9% |
| elo | 48.4% | 25.1% | 26.6% |
| market | 73.3% | 15.4% | 11.3% |
- Juventus wPPG 1.98 (home 2.00, W-W-W-D-W)
- Fiorentina wPPG 1.36 (away 1.43, W-L-W-D-D)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 1.09
- xG Juventus 3.32 vs Fiorentina 0.90
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Juventus 1560 vs Fiorentina 1516
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 3.32 – 0.90 · No goal 1.5% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. McKennie | Juventus | M | 0.27 | 39.9% | 11.2% | |
| K. Yıldız | Juventus | M | 0.27 | 39.9% | 11.2% | |
| Bremer | Juventus | D | 0.18 | 29.2% | 7.6% | |
| F. Conceição | Juventus | M | 0.16 | 25.7% | 6.5% | |
| D. Vlahović | Juventus | F | 0.13 | 22.5% | 5.6% | |
| P. Kalulu | Juventus | D | 0.13 | 21.6% | 5.4% | |
| A. Cambiaso | Juventus | D | 0.13 | 21.6% | 5.4% | |
| M. Locatelli | Juventus | M | 0.10 | 17.4% | 4.2% | |
| R. Piccoli | Fiorentina | F | 0.24 | 14.3% | 3.4% | |
| M. Solomon | Fiorentina | F | 0.24 | 14.3% | 3.4% | |
| J. David | Juventus | F | 0.36 | 12.3% | 2.9% | |
| F. Parisi | Fiorentina | F | 0.19 | 11.3% | 2.6% | |
| J. Boga | Juventus | F | 0.30 | 10.4% | 2.4% | |
| C. Ndour | Fiorentina | M | 0.16 | 9.4% | 2.2% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 92.6% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.