Serie A
Como vs Parma
Sunday, May 17, 10:00
Consensus
Medium · 58.4%Como
67.9%
book 77.4%
Draw
20.9%
book 16.4%
Parma
11.2%
book 6.2%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 57.0% | 30.5% | 12.5% |
| poisson | 56.6% | 24.8% | 18.6% |
| elo | 52.4% | 23.2% | 24.4% |
| market | 77.4% | 16.4% | 6.2% |
- Como wPPG 1.53 (home 1.75, L-W-W-W-D)
- Parma wPPG 1.10 (away 2.13, W-L-W-L-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 0.95
- xG Como 1.43 vs Parma 0.67
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Como 1557 vs Parma 1484
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- away 13.00EV +45.7%Edge 5.0%Kelly 3.8%
- draw 5.50EV +15.1%Edge 4.5%Kelly 3.4%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 1.43 – 0.67 · No goal 12.3% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Douvikas | Como | F | 0.52 | 35.4% | 17.2% | |
| M. Pellegrino | Parma | F | 0.41 | 22.2% | 9.9% | |
| M. Baturina | Como | M | 0.27 | 20.0% | 8.8% | |
| L. Da Cunha | Como | M | 0.21 | 16.2% | 7.0% | |
| M. Caqueret | Como | M | 0.16 | 12.2% | 5.1% | |
| M. Kempf | Como | D | 0.13 | 10.1% | 4.2% | |
| M. Perrone | Como | M | 0.10 | 8.0% | 3.3% | |
| G. Strefezza | Parma | F | 0.13 | 7.8% | 3.2% | |
| J. Ramón | Como | D | 0.07 | 6.0% | 2.4% | |
| C. Ordoñez | Parma | M | 0.10 | 5.9% | 2.4% | |
| M. Troilo | Parma | D | 0.07 | 4.4% | 1.8% | |
| A. Diao | Como | M | 0.04 | 3.7% | 1.5% | |
| J. Rodriguez | Como | F | 0.19 | 3.0% | 1.2% | |
| N. Kühn | Como | F | 0.19 | 3.0% | 1.2% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 82.4% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.