Serie A
Genoa vs AC Milan
Sunday, May 17, 10:00
Consensus
Low · 47.9%Genoa
20.6%
book 18.4%
Draw
25.5%
book 24.9%
AC Milan
53.9%
book 56.7%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 14.8% | 32.0% | 53.1% |
| poisson | 22.3% | 19.5% | 58.2% |
| elo | 36.5% | 30.7% | 32.7% |
| market | 18.4% | 24.9% | 56.7% |
- Genoa wPPG 1.25 (home 1.38, W-D-D-W-W)
- AC Milan wPPG 1.90 (away 2.50, W-W-D-W-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta -0.80
- xG Genoa 1.14 vs AC Milan 2.00
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Genoa 1503 vs AC Milan 1544
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
No edge detected vs current bookmaker odds (or odds unavailable).
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 1.14 – 2.00 · No goal 4.3% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Nkunku | AC Milan | F | 0.41 | 44.2% | 16.7% | |
| A. Rabiot | AC Milan | M | 0.27 | 31.5% | 10.8% | |
| L. Colombo | Genoa | F | 0.47 | 31.5% | 10.8% | |
| R. Malinovskyi | Genoa | M | 0.32 | 23.0% | 7.5% | |
| D. Bartesaghi | AC Milan | M | 0.16 | 19.8% | 6.3% | |
| S. Giménez | AC Milan | F | 0.13 | 17.3% | 5.4% | |
| Vitinha | Genoa | M | 0.21 | 15.7% | 4.9% | |
| S. Pavlović | AC Milan | D | 0.07 | 10.0% | 3.0% | |
| M. Frendrup | Genoa | M | 0.10 | 7.8% | 2.3% | |
| Z. Athekame | AC Milan | M | 0.04 | 6.1% | 1.8% | |
| Y. Fofana | AC Milan | M | 0.04 | 6.1% | 1.8% | |
| A. Jashari | AC Milan | M | 0.04 | 6.1% | 1.8% | |
| C. Pulišić | AC Milan | M | 0.21 | 5.6% | 1.7% | |
| N. Füllkrug | AC Milan | F | 0.19 | 5.0% | 1.5% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 89.9% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.