Serie A
Inter vs Hellas Verona
Sunday, May 17, 13:00
Consensus
High · 77.4%Inter
77.8%
book 71.3%
Draw
13.7%
book 15.9%
Hellas Verona
8.4%
book 12.8%
Per-model
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| form | 74.0% | 24.0% | 2.0% |
| poisson | 94.0% | 4.1% | 1.9% |
| elo | 59.0% | 20.0% | 21.0% |
| market | 71.3% | 15.9% | 12.8% |
- Inter wPPG 2.23 (home 2.50, W-W-D-W-W)
- Hellas Verona wPPG 0.70 (away 0.86, L-D-L-L-W)
- Home advantage +0.22, strength delta 2.24
- xG Inter 4.29 vs Hellas Verona 0.60
- League avg: home 1.50 / away 1.15
- Dixon-Coles ρ=0.1
- Elo Inter 1576 vs Hellas Verona 1456
- Home-field bonus +60
- Bookmaker 1X2 prices, with their margin stripped out
Value
- home 1.36EV +5.9%Edge 6.5%Kelly 16.3%
Goalscorer probabilities
xG 4.29 – 0.60 · No goal 0.8% confirmed XI
Each player's chance of scoring blends their club goals from the last 10 match-equivalents with national-team form (UEFA / FIFA tournaments). Rates are nudged toward a typical level for their position so small samples don't run wild, then scaled to fit the team's expected goals shown above.
| Track | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Martínez | Inter | F | 0.52 | 76.3% | 27.6% | |
| A. Bonny | Inter | F | 0.19 | 40.6% | 10.0% | |
| H. Mkhitaryan | Inter | M | 0.16 | 34.9% | 8.2% | |
| L. Henrique | Inter | M | 0.10 | 24.1% | 5.3% | |
| F. P. Esposito | Inter | F | 0.41 | 19.6% | 4.2% | |
| M. Thuram | Inter | F | 0.36 | 17.2% | 3.6% | |
| P. Zieliński | Inter | M | 0.27 | 13.2% | 2.7% | |
| F. Dimarco | Inter | D | 0.23 | 11.7% | 2.4% | |
| A. Diouf | Inter | M | 0.04 | 11.5% | 2.3% | |
| P. Sučić | Inter | M | 0.04 | 11.5% | 2.3% | |
| C. Augusto | Inter | M | 0.04 | 11.5% | 2.3% | |
| H. Çalhanoğlu | Inter | M | 0.21 | 10.6% | 2.1% | |
| T. Suslov | Hellas Verona | F | 0.13 | 8.6% | 1.7% | |
| K. Bowie | Hellas Verona | F | 0.13 | 8.6% | 1.7% |
First-scorer probabilities sum to 93.3% across all named players (own goals + no goal account for the rest). To find value, divide bookmaker odds by 1/firstProb — odds higher than that mean the book is offering positive EV.